Are U.S. Sanctions on Iran Crushing Civilians While Failing to Curb Regime Power?

The United States announced fresh sanctions on April 16, 2025, targeting a Chinese refinery and a web of vessels accused of funneling Iranian oil. This move, aimed at choking Iran’s oil exports, feels like a familiar script. It’s the latest chapter in a decades-long saga of economic warfare, one that promises to squeeze Iran’s regime but too often crushes its people instead. The strategy, rooted in a belief that relentless pressure will force Iran to bend, ignores a stubborn truth: it hasn’t worked before, and it’s unlikely to work now.

These sanctions, targeting Shandong Shengxing Chemical Co. and Iran’s so-called shadow fleet, are part of the Trump administration’s revived maximum pressure campaign. The goal? Drive Iran’s oil exports to zero and starve its government of funds. Yet, the reality is messier. Iran’s oil continues to flow, mostly to China, which buys over 90% of its exports. The sanctions, while disruptive, haven’t stopped the trade. Instead, they’ve pushed it underground, into a murky world of rebranded crude and dark fleets, where enforcement is a game of whack-a-mole.

What’s striking is the human cost. Sanctions have gutted Iran’s economy, with inflation soaring to 50% and the rial collapsing. Ordinary Iranians face shortages of medicine and skyrocketing food prices. Advocates for human rights, like those at Amnesty International, have long argued that such measures disproportionately harm civilians while the regime adapts. The policy’s architects claim it targets Iran’s destabilizing actions, but the collateral damage tells a different story.

This approach feels like swinging at shadows. It’s not just that the sanctions fail to achieve their aims; they entrench the very behaviors they seek to change. Iran, far from capitulating, has doubled down on its nuclear ambitions and deepened its economic ties with China. The U.S. risks alienating not just Iran but also global partners who see these unilateral moves as overreach.

China’s role in this saga is impossible to ignore. As Iran’s largest oil buyer, it imported a record 1.71 million barrels per day in March 2025, shrugging off U.S. threats. Chinese teapot refineries, like the one sanctioned, snap up discounted Iranian crude, often masking its origins as Malaysian or Emirati. Payments in yuan through smaller banks dodge American oversight. This isn’t just business; it’s a deliberate rebuke of U.S. policy. Chinese officials have repeatedly called these sanctions illegitimate, prioritizing their energy needs over Washington’s demands.

Sanctioning Chinese firms might seem like a bold move, but it’s a drop in the bucket. Iran’s oil exports hit 1.82 million barrels per day in February 2025, the highest since 2018. The shadow fleet, with over 400 tankers, keeps the oil moving through ship-to-ship transfers and falsified documents. The U.S. has blacklisted dozens of vessels, but Iran and China adapt faster than enforcers can keep up. It’s a high-stakes chess game, and the U.S. is playing catch-up.

Critics of the sanctions, including economists at the Brookings Institution, point out a deeper flaw: they push Iran and China closer together. By targeting their trade, the U.S. has inadvertently strengthened a partnership that counters its own influence. China’s defiance isn’t just about oil; it’s a signal of its growing assertiveness on the global stage. Punishing teapot refineries might disrupt a few deals, but it won’t break this alliance. It’s time to ask: is this strategy isolating Iran or isolating the U.S.?

The maximum pressure campaign isn’t new. Launched in 2018 after the U.S. abandoned the Iran nuclear deal, it slashed Iran’s oil exports and tanked its economy. GDP shrank by 12%, inflation hit 75%, and poverty climbed. Yet, the regime didn’t budge. Instead, it ramped up uranium enrichment and leaned on China and Russia. The policy’s failure to force negotiations or curb Iran’s regional influence led analysts, like those at the Council on Foreign Relations, to call it a strategic miscalculation.

Today’s sanctions double down on that same playbook. They target Iran’s oil revenue, which funds its military and regional proxies, but they ignore the resilience of Iran’s evasion tactics. The regime has honed its ability to skirt restrictions, using everything from cryptocurrency to barter trade. The result? Oil exports rebounded to nearly 1.9 million barrels per day by mid-2024, before the latest sanctions. This isn’t surrender; it’s adaptation.

Supporters of the policy argue it’s about leverage, forcing Iran to the table. But where’s the table? The absence of a diplomatic path is glaring. The 2015 nuclear deal, imperfect as it was, offered a framework for dialogue. Scrapping it left a void that sanctions alone can’t fill. Advocates for diplomacy, like former Obama administration officials, argue that engagement, not isolation, is the only way to address Iran’s nuclear and regional ambitions. Without it, the U.S. is left with a policy that punishes but doesn’t persuade.

The real tragedy lies in the lives upended. Sanctions have driven Iran’s economy to the brink, with nominal GDP expected to dip below $400 billion this year. The rial’s collapse has made basic goods unaffordable for millions. Reports from Human Rights Watch detail shortages of critical medicines, like insulin, as banking restrictions choke supply chains. Food insecurity is rising, with families struggling to afford staples. These aren’t abstract numbers; they’re stories of parents unable to treat sick children, of workers losing livelihoods.

Defenders of sanctions insist they’re targeted, sparing civilians. But the reality is messier. Broad economic measures ripple outward, hitting the vulnerable hardest. The regime, insulated by its control over resources, finds ways to cope, while ordinary Iranians bear the cost. This dynamic fuels resentment, not just against the U.S. but against the very idea of international cooperation. It’s a bitter irony: a policy meant to weaken Iran’s government risks radicalizing its people.

There’s a way out, but it requires courage and creativity. The U.S. must pair pressure with diplomacy, offering Iran a clear off-ramp. Reviving elements of the 2015 nuclear deal could rebuild trust and open channels for broader talks on regional stability. Engaging China, rather than alienating it, could leverage its influence over Iran to push for concessions. Multilateral efforts, backed by the UN or European allies, would carry more weight than unilateral sanctions.

The alternative is more of the same: a cycle of sanctions, evasion, and escalation that leaves everyone worse off. Iran’s regime won’t collapse under economic strain; it’s proven that. But its people will continue to suffer, and the U.S. will lose credibility as a global leader. The path forward lies in dialogue, not dominance. It’s time to stop swinging at shadows and start building bridges.