Reckless Tariffs Push America Toward Painful Recession

The warning came out of nowhere, a stark jolt in an already uneasy spring. Citi’s chief economist, Andrew Hollenhorst, pegged the odds of a U.S. recession in 2025 at 40 to 45 percent, a figure that sent ripples through markets and kitchen tables alike. For millions of Americans, still grappling with rising grocery bills and stagnant wages, the prospect of an economic downturn feels less like a forecast and more like a confirmation of their daily struggles. The numbers paint a grim picture: consumer confidence at a 12-year low, inflation eroding paychecks, and trade wars threatening jobs. Yet, this moment demands more than fear. It demands action, vision, and a commitment to shielding the most vulnerable from the fallout of misguided policies.

Hollenhorst’s estimate is no outlier. The International Monetary Fund now sees a 40 percent chance of recession, while J.P. Morgan’s analysts push the odds to 60 percent. These aren’t abstract probabilities; they translate to real-world pain—lost jobs, shuttered businesses, and dreams deferred. The root causes are clear: escalating trade tensions, driven by blanket tariffs that have raised the average U.S. tariff rate to 30 percent, are choking global supply chains and spiking costs. Inflation, projected to climb to 4 percent by year’s end, is squeezing families already stretched thin. For advocates of economic justice, the path forward is unmistakable: policymakers must prioritize workers, rein in corporate greed, and reject the reckless trade policies fueling this crisis.

The human toll of a potential recession cannot be overstated. In March 2025, the Conference Board’s Expectations Index plummeted to 65.2, a level signaling imminent economic contraction. Consumers, battered by a 2.4 percent inflation rate and fears of unemployment doubling, are pulling back. Nearly eight in ten Americans are hunting for deals, swapping brand-name goods for generics, and bracing for tougher times. This isn’t just about numbers—it’s about families skipping meals, parents working second jobs, and young people abandoning hope of homeownership. The question isn’t whether we can afford to act; it’s whether we can afford not to.

At the heart of this economic peril lies a policy choice: the aggressive tariffs championed by President Donald Trump, re-elected in 2024 and now steering the nation into turbulent waters. These tariffs, slapped on everything from electronics to food, were sold as a way to protect American workers. Instead, they’re strangling them. The IMF has slashed its global growth forecast to 2.8 percent for 2025, citing trade disruptions as a primary culprit. In the U.S., GDP growth is expected to limp along at 1.8 percent, while the S&P 500 has shed 9 percent since the tariffs took hold. Businesses, wary of rising costs and shrinking markets, are freezing hiring and investment. The result? A labor market teetering on the edge, with unemployment creeping to 4.2 percent and worker anxiety at a fever pitch.

Supporters of the tariffs argue they bolster domestic industries and curb reliance on foreign goods. But this is a hollow promise. Historical data tells a different story: protectionist measures, like the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, deepened the Great Depression by stifling trade and inflating prices. Today’s tariffs are no less destructive. They’ve driven up costs for consumers—77 percent of whom say their incomes can’t keep pace with inflation—and disrupted supply chains, leaving shelves bare and prices soaring. Small businesses, the backbone of local economies, are particularly hard-hit, unable to absorb the higher costs. Advocates for fair trade and economic equity see through the rhetoric: these policies enrich corporate giants while leaving workers to bear the burden.

The global fallout is equally alarming. Developing nations, already grappling with high debt and weak investment, face a grim outlook as trade growth stalls at 1.7 percent. In Africa and Latin America, where mild recoveries were expected, tariff shocks threaten to unravel progress. The green transition, a beacon of hope for sustainable growth, is faltering as investment dries up. For those who believe in global cooperation and shared prosperity, the message is clear: unilateral trade wars are a losing game. Policymakers must pivot to multilateral agreements that stabilize markets and protect vulnerable economies, not deepen their woes.

The Federal Reserve, caught between taming inflation and averting a slowdown, has held rates at 4.25 to 4.5 percent, with only cautious cuts planned for 2025. But monetary policy alone can’t fix what ails us. The Fed’s tools are blunt, unable to address the structural damage of trade wars or the inequities baked into our economy. Advocates for working families argue for a bolder approach: targeted fiscal stimulus to boost demand, investments in green infrastructure to create jobs, and robust safety nets to shield the vulnerable. Historical precedent supports this. The New Deal of the 1930s and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 showed that government intervention, when strategic, can pull economies from the brink.

Opponents of such measures, often aligned with corporate interests, claim deficits will spiral and inflation will worsen. Yet, this ignores the cost of inaction. The Great Recession taught us that austerity prolongs suffering, while investment spurs recovery. Today, with 402 million people globally seeking work and U.S. consumers cutting back, the risk of doing too little far outweighs the risk of doing too much. Policymakers must act decisively—expanding unemployment benefits, subsidizing childcare, and funding clean energy projects that employ millions. These aren’t handouts; they’re lifelines for an economy on the ropes.

The labor market, though resilient with a 5 percent global unemployment rate, is flashing warning signs. In the U.S., 81 percent of workers fear job loss, and businesses are scaling back hiring. Youth unemployment, at 12.6 percent globally, threatens a generation’s future. For those who value economic fairness, the solution lies in proactive policies: wage subsidies, job training programs, and protections for gig workers. These steps not only stabilize incomes but also restore confidence, encouraging spending and growth. The alternative—leaving workers to fend for themselves—invites a deeper crisis.

The road ahead is daunting, but not insurmountable. Citi’s recession warning is a call to arms, not a death knell. By abandoning reckless tariffs, investing in people, and embracing global cooperation, America can dodge the worst of this storm. The stakes are high: unchecked, a recession could unravel decades of progress, hitting hardest those already struggling—low-income families, communities of color, and young workers. But with courage and clarity, policymakers can chart a different course, one that prioritizes equity, sustainability, and shared prosperity.

This fight is personal. It’s about the single mother choosing between rent and groceries, the factory worker staring down a pink slip, the student drowning in debt with no job in sight. For those who believe in a fairer, stronger America, the time for half-measures is over. We need leaders who will stand up to corporate profiteering, dismantle destructive trade policies, and build an economy that works for everyone. The recession odds may be climbing, but so is our resolve to meet this challenge head-on.