Trump's Tariffs Are Pushing America Toward a Preventable Recession

The American economy stands at a crossroads, teetering on the edge of a recession that could unravel decades of hard-won progress. Citigroup’s chief economist, Nathan Sheets, recently sounded the alarm, estimating a 40 to 45 percent chance of economic contraction in 2025, driven by the weight of President Trump’s sweeping new tariffs. These trade barriers, sold as a shield for American workers, are poised to deliver a punishing blow to the very people they claim to protect: everyday families, small business owners, and wage earners already stretched thin.

Sheets’ warning is not a lone cry. Economists across the spectrum, from Apollo’s Torsten Slok to JPMorgan’s analysts, peg the recession risk as high as 90 percent if tariffs persist. The consensus is clear: these policies, far from strengthening the economy, threaten to choke growth while driving up costs for consumers. For those who champion economic justice, this moment demands a fierce defense of workers and a rejection of reckless trade wars that prioritize political posturing over people’s livelihoods.

The tariffs, including a 10 percent levy on Chinese imports and steep duties on steel and aluminum, are already rippling through supply chains. By the second half of 2025, Sheets predicts, their full impact will hit, slowing growth and squeezing household budgets. This isn’t abstract economics; it’s the price of groceries climbing, the cost of a new car creeping out of reach, the dream of homeownership slipping further away for millions.

Advocates for working-class families see this as a betrayal. Policies that raise living costs while threatening jobs undermine the promise of an economy that works for all. The question now is whether we’ll stand by as these tariffs drag us into a preventable downturn or fight for a fairer, smarter approach to trade that lifts everyone up.

Supporters of Trump’s tariffs argue they protect American jobs from foreign competition, a seductive pitch for communities hollowed out by globalization. But history tells a different story. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which raised duties on thousands of imports, deepened the Great Depression, slashing global trade and costing countless jobs. Today’s tariffs, among the highest since that era, risk a similar catastrophe, with the IMF forecasting global trade growth plummeting from 3.8 percent in 2024 to just 1.7 percent in 2025.

The evidence is stark. New tariffs are already pushing up prices, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley revising 2025 inflation forecasts upward. Consumers, not foreign producers, bear the brunt. A 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods doesn’t just hit factories in Beijing; it raises the cost of clothing, electronics, and toys in American stores. Families already grappling with 2.6 percent food inflation and 4.2 percent shelter cost increases face a tighter squeeze, while the wealthy, insulated by investments, barely feel the pinch.

Some claim tariffs will revive manufacturing. Yet business sentiment is souring, with companies delaying hiring and investment amid uncertainty. The labor market, though resilient with 228,000 jobs added in March 2025, shows cracks: layoffs spiked 60 percent month-over-month, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent. Workers, especially in industries like transportation and retail, face growing precarity, not prosperity.

The real kicker? Tariffs don’t address the root causes of job loss, like automation or inadequate worker retraining. Instead, they enrich a few corporate giants while punishing small businesses and consumers. Advocates for economic equity reject this as a rigged game, calling for trade policies that invest in workers, not inflame global tensions.

There’s a better way. Trade policies grounded in fairness and cooperation can strengthen the economy without sacrificing workers or consumers. Investing in green energy, infrastructure, and education would create millions of good-paying jobs while addressing climate change and inequality. Retraining programs for workers displaced by globalization or automation could restore dignity and opportunity to communities left behind.

The Federal Reserve, caught in a bind, offers a cautionary tale. With interest rates steady at 4.25 to 4.5 percent, Chair Jerome Powell has signaled only modest cuts in 2025, wary of tariff-driven inflation. This cautious stance, while prudent, limits relief for borrowers and businesses. A bolder vision would pair monetary restraint with fiscal policies that prioritize working families: expanding the earned income tax credit, raising the federal minimum wage, or funding affordable childcare.

Global cooperation is equally critical. The IMF warns that escalating trade wars could slash US growth to 1.8 percent in 2025, with ripple effects worldwide. By leading multilateral trade agreements that enforce labor and environmental standards, the US could rebuild trust with allies and counter China’s influence without resorting to economic brinkmanship. This approach aligns with the values of those who believe in an economy that serves people, not power.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. A recession in 2025, fueled by tariffs and policy uncertainty, would hit hardest those already struggling: low-wage workers, single parents, communities of color. Real wages, finally outpacing inflation at 3.2 percent growth, could stall, erasing gains for millions. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators, down 0.7 percent in March, signal a slowdown that demands action, not complacency.

Those who defend tariffs as a bold stand for American sovereignty ignore the human cost. Their vision fetishizes short-term wins over long-term stability, gambling with the livelihoods of millions. Economic justice demands we reject this reckless path and champion policies that build resilience, equity, and opportunity for all.